29 May 2015 - The Weather

I mentioned in last nights post that the weather was likely to influence our plans today and that I'd post more about it later. Well here is the news ...

Let's look at the surface pressure analysis for 15:00UTC this afternoon ...

 The Azores High is, as always, down in the South West of the picture. The kicker is the Low centred between Shetland and Faeroe and the ridge of low pressure extending down the North Sea. That ridge is squeezing the isobars over South East England and the Northern French and Belgian coasts. Let's look at the surface wind forecast for the same time ...

 

I've chosen 15:00UTC as it presents the clearest picture but 12:00 doesn't look a lot better! If we left for Niuepoort today as I'd hoped we would we'd be arriving around 14:00UTC. Hmmm!

That splash of yellow sits squarely along the coast we want to sail along. It indicates surface winds of 30 to 35 knots. That's F7 to F8 otherwise known as a near gale or yachtsmans gale. And it will be gusting harder than that.

Let's have a look at the shipping forecast ...

Dover
 

Gale warnings - Issued: 0340 UTC Fri 29 May
Southwesterly severe gale force 9 expected soon

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0405 UTC Fri 29 May

Wind:     Southwest veering west 4 or 5, increasing 7 to severe gale 9 for a time.
Sea state:     Slight or moderate, becoming rough for a time.
Weather:     Rain for a time.
Visibility:     Good, occasionally poor.

That puts a tin lid on it. My rule is no departure if a gale warning is in force. We stay put for today.

Tomorrow looks hopeful though. However all the signs and portents are that we'll then be stuck in Belgium until at least Wednesday. More on that anon